BARRETTO: Why Verstappen can’t be discounted from the 2025 title fight – even if he’s a long shot

Max Verstappen may be the reigning four-time World Champion, but so strong were rivals McLaren before the summer break, the Red Bull racer was considered a rank outsider to make it five. But three races into the second half of the campaign, the Dutchman's form has been so superlative, it's raised the question: is it game on again for a fifth title in a row? 

Okay, you've got my attention. Give me the state of play...

Oscar Piastri heads the championship standings and is 25 points clear of McLaren team mate Lando Norris. Both are vying for what would be their first Formula 1 World Championship crown. Red Bull's Verstappen is in third, 69 points further back with seven Grands Prix weekends to go. 

Verstappen is 69 points behind and you think he can still win? That's nearly three Grand Prix wins' worth of points. Are you crazy?

I never said it was going to be easy, but Verstappen has momentum. He was second at his home race in Zandvoort straight after the break and then won in Italy and again last time out in Azerbaijan to close the gap by 28 points from 97 to 69.

Make that amount of ground again over the next three races and then again for the following three and he'll only be 13 behind heading to the finale. 

That's still a huge gap to cut down and will require McLaren to keep dropping the ball. What makes you think he can keep up the momentum?

Well, I don't know if he can if I'm honest. But there is no doubting that since Hungary, Red Bull's high-risk approach – instilled by new team boss Laurent Mekies – to learning about their tricky car is generally paying off.

It doesn't work all the time, as was evidenced by their painfully difficult weekend in Budapest, but it has worked at the next three. Both Verstappen and team mate Yuki Tsunoda are more comfortable with the balance and the car overall. 

Yes, but the last two tracks have been low downforce tracks that play to Red Bull's strengths, like we saw earlier this year in Jeddah and Silverstone...

You're not wrong. 

Low downforce is where the Red Bull feels at home, but they were at least second-best at Zandvoort, which required high downforce and featured the long corners where they have given time away. 

A new floor introduced in Monza may well have had a positive impact on their upturn in form – as might the move to following driver feedback rather than pre-race simulations for set-up direction during a weekend, something they've started to do since Mekies joined the team. 

Okay, fair enough. But an encouraging outing at Zandvoort is only a sample of one when it comes to success on a high downforce circuit...

I agree, which is why the next race in Singapore – where Red Bull have only won once in the last nine years – can give us an insight into whether Verstappen can keep this comeback going. 

Has anyone ever come back from this far behind before?

Well, no. There have been some impressive fightbacks, though. 

Sebastian Vettel was 39 points behind with seven races to go in 2012 and snatched his third straight title by three points – a swing of 42 points. 

The German fought back from 31 points behind in 2010 to win his first title at the decider in Abu Dhabi, and incidentally move into the championship lead for the first time that season. 

Kimi Raikkonen came from 17 points behind (when there was only a maximum of 20 remaining) in 2007 to snatch the title from McLaren duo Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton. 

John Surtees recovered a 20-point deficit with five to go to win in 1964 (when wins gave you just nine points) while James Hunt overcame a 17-point deficit with three to go in 1976 to defeat Niki Lauda. 

And on a different note, it's possible for a driver to go on the kind of dominant run of form Verstappen needs. Vettel returned from the summer break in 2013 with a 38-point lead. 

He won all nine of the remaining races to win by 155 – admittedly in what became the best car, with many teams switching their attention to 2014 when a new rule set was being introduced. 

So, what you're saying is it's not impossible but it's also not probable.

Exactly that. If Verstappen wins the remaining seven Grands Prix – and all three Sprints – with Piastri second in all of them, he would still finish 17 points behind. That shows just how mammoth the task he faces is.

But the improbable can happen.

Hamilton trailed Mercedes team mate Nico Rosberg by 29 points with seven races to go in 2014 but he won six of the last seven to win the championship by 67 points. 

That was a swing of 89 points, though that gap was inflated by the quirk that Abu Dhabi offered double points that year. 

Nonetheless, without the double points, he still secured a 64-point swing, albeit in the best car in a two-way fight for the title with his team mate. 

I suppose Verstappen is the kind of driver who can achieve the unexpected...

Precisely. You could easily make the case that he's driven better this year than at any other time in his career. His win in Japan, for example, earlier this year was outstanding – as was his pole position at Silverstone. 

This explains why McLaren are worried about the threat he poses, then...

"Yes, in capital letters," is how McLaren boss Andrea Stella responded in Baku when asked if he felt Verstappen was a threat in the Drivers' Championship. "We're talking about Max Verstappen, we're talking about Red Bull. 

"We have already seen in Monza that they improved. They seem to have made an improvement with their car, because the way they won Monza was something more for what was our assessment than simply a car that adapts well at low drag. 

"They were fast in the corners, medium-speed and low-speed corners, fast in the straights, and we know that Max, when he has a competitive car, can deliver strong weekends. 

"Conversely, we also knew that… Baku for us would have been a difficult circuit. So, we will see now in Singapore – which should be more of a [track] in which we should perform well – hopefully we can go back to fighting for victories, and then we will see how the rest of the championship will unfold. 

"But definitely, Max is in the contention for the Drivers’ Championship. We knew it, and we got confirmation [in Baku]."

Should McLaren be worried, though?

Verstappen is a worthy adversary, but Baku is very much a blip in what has been a stunning season for McLaren so far. 

They've won 12 out of 17 races, scored seven 1-2 finishes and are runaway leaders in the Teams' Championship. 

The last two events have also been cooler than expected – with McLaren tending to excel when it's warmer. Singapore will be back to the warm conditions their car loves. 

It is only Verstappen's brilliance – and Red Bull's recent recovery – that is making him a factor, albeit still an outside one. 

McLaren are right to be wary of Verstappen – but they will also have the confidence you get when you consistently deliver at the highest level.

In theory, if they deliver perfect weekends with their package, it will be one of their drivers that clinches the crown. 

What does Verstappen think?

Well, in true Verstappen style, he is not getting ahead of himself, not least because he will likely want more evidence his Red Bull can deliver the same kind of results on high downforce tracks – of which six of the remaining seven fall into that category.

"It’s seven rounds left – 69 points is a lot," he said. "So I personally don’t think about it. I just go race by race, what I have been doing basically the whole season – just trying to do the best we can, try to score the most points that we can. And then after Abu Dhabi, we’ll know."

But he did concede that Monza and Baku had been particularly good, considering Red Bull haven't had the best of records at those venues.

“Monza has never really been a particularly strong track for us, so to do that, that was already a big plus," he said. "And I guess all in all for me here in Baku, it’s been alright, but never amazing – apart from maybe '21, '22, I guess. 

"But the rest has always been a bit difficult. So, yeah, to have a weekend like this, it was very important."

How about Red Bull? Are they feeling this charge is on?

Like Verstappen, Mekies isn't getting carried away either by the team's recent form.

"We take it step by step," he said. "We concentrate on ourselves, we try to look at what is limiting us, how to unlock it... that’s what the guys have been so good to do both in Milton Keynes and here at the racetrack. It worked [in Baku], it worked at Monza. 

"The equation in Singapore will be completely different. We know it’s back to the very, very high downforce, and tracks we have been struggling [at] a little bit more, higher temperatures. So, we’ll see. 

"We focus on trying to improve step by step the car. Even if the regulations are completely different next year, developing our understanding of what is limiting us has value, and hence we are taking it as seriously as we can."

Well, you've certainly got me excited about Singapore now...

Don't get me wrong, it's still a long shot. 

But Verstappen and Red Bull's form in the last three races have at least reignited the possibility of a three-way fight for the Drivers' Championship. 

Their form in Singapore will go a long way to confirming whether they can sustain such a fight.